Tennis Picks Thursday

Ivan Ljubicic vs Stanislas Wawrinka Lay Wawrinka @4.2 won +1 point
Carlos Moya vs Florent Serra Lay Serra@ 3.3 won +1 point
Ivo Karlovic vs Jonas Bjorkman Lay Bjorkman@ 2.92 lost -1.92 points
Igor Andreev vs Nicolas Massu Lay Massu@ 3.2 (tomorrow)
Albert Montanes vs Ernest Gulbis Lay Gulbis@ 3.3 won +1 point
Lleyton Hewitt vs Gaston Gaudio Lay Gaudio@ 5.2 won +1 point
P.H. Mathieu vs G.Simon Lay Simon @3.2 (tomorrow)
Guillermo Garcia Lopez vs Juan Pablo Brzezicki Lay Brzezicki 3.75 lost -2.75 points
Guillermo Canas vs Kristof Vliegen Lay Vliegen 4.8 (tomorrow)
David Ferrer vs Diego Hartfield Lay Hartfield 14.5 won +1 point

WTA
Milagros Sequera vs Serena Williams Lay Sequera 16 won +1 point
Amelie Mauresmo vs Nathalie Dechy Lay Dechy @ 7 won +1 point

Result +2.3 points.

Experimental Trading

Apart from betting (with management :) ) I also trade in betfair, and tennis is a good sport to trade cause of the swing of prices. Anyway anyone knows about this but an idea that I have recently is this. In a game sometimes a player is winning and suddenly some mistake happens and he is losing, and from odds of around 1.2 the odds go to 2... and if he loses a set odds go completely different way. so my experimental trading is this.

Find games which I think there will be swing of price and lay both sides at odds less than 2, when the game starts I am putting the following bets and see what happens.

For tomorrow I will try with low stakes the following.

Jan Hajek vs Bohdan Ulihrach, Lay both @1.3 lost
comments : Hajek won minimum minimum odds on Ulihrach where 1.45

Oscar Hernandez vs Philipp Kohlschreiber Lay both @ 1.4 lost
hernandez won in straight sets

Ivo Karlovic vs Bjorkman Lay both at 1.2 won
comments :at the moment in play, both players reached odds as low as 1.08

Andreev vs Massu Lay both at 1.2

Mathieu vs G.Simon Lay both at 1.2

Montanes vs Gulbis Lay both at 1.2 lost
montanes reached 1.02 then went up to 2 then down to 1.25... still inplay....
Montanes won the set after and won the game

Moya vs Serra Lay both at 1.25 lost
Moya won in 3 sets,Serra had no chance

M. Zabaleta vs O.Patience Lay both at 1.25 lost
comment : this was an almost one, the odds on Zabaleta went down to 1.28 at one point

Verdasco vs Tursnov Lay both at 1.15 lost
comment : Verdasco won in straight sets

comments and suggestions on this system are welcome :)

12 from 14 on tennis

Another good day in selections today in tennis and with level stake points there was a tiny profit of 0.7 points. I read quite a number of ebooks about betting and 1 important thing I read is that profitable betting consists of 2 main things.
1 Selection 50% importance and
2. Stake plan 50% importance.

Having good selections with a wrong stake plan can not be profitable. In tennis at the moment, I am having good selections 28 from 34 (around 82% strike rate) but i am still uncertain which is the best staking plan. Personally I am using fixed liability at 7.5% for each game and this shown to be quite successfull with these selections. So far I would have done around 30 points from a 100 point bank. Also what i am doing is that I am not compounding my profits and leave them aside in case of a bad day. Using 10% liability the profit is fantastic, but its probably too risky and a bad day could hurt. Let's continue this journey and try to find the best staking plan.

Soccer Wednesday 30th

no soccer tips today.

Tennis wed 30th June

ATP

Marat Safin vs Janko Tipsarevic Lay Janko Tipsarevic @ 3.5 lost -2.5 points
Richard Gasquet vs Kristof Vliegen Lay Kristof Vliegen @8.8 lost -7.8 points
Guillermo Canas vs Simone Bolelli Lay Simone Bolelli @ 7.4 won +1 point
Filippo Volandri vs Martin Vassallo Arguello Lay @ Martin Vassallo Arguello @4.6 won +1 point
Juan Monaco vs Jurgen Melzer Lay Jurgen Melzer@ 2.9 won +1 point
David Nalbandian vs Ivan Navarro Pastor Lay Ivan Navarro Pastor@ 6.4 won +1 point
Ivan Ljubicic vs Stanislas Wawrinka Lay Stanislas Wawrinka@ 4
Carlos Moya vs Andreas Seppi Lay Andreas Seppi @ 4.8 won +1 point
David Ferrer vs Daniele Bracciali Lay Daniele Bracciali @ 14.5 won +1 point

WTA
Ai Sugiyama vs Eva Birnerova Lay Eva Birnerova @ 4.8 won +1 point
Ana Ivanovic vs Sofia Arvidssom Lay Sofia Arvidssom @ 15 won +1 point
Alberta Brianti vs Sania Mirza Lay Alberta Brianti @2.24 won +1 point
Amelie Mauresmo vs Laura Granville Lay Laura Granville@ 18 won +1 point
Gisela Dulko vs Su wei Hsieh Lay Su wei Hsieh Lay@ 4 won +1 point

Ljubicic game has been postponed to tomorrow

Results
+0.7 points


Stake 2 is having fixed liability,
Today's results
risking 5% of bank on each bet points 5.2 points
risking 7.5 % of bank on each bet points 16.8 points
risking 10% of bank on each bet points 30 points.

I will post detailed results of the stakes later.....

16 from 20 in round 1 Roland Garros

Got 16 out of 20 games in the First round of the French open, and on games only, there where not included set bettings. with the usual stake plan 5.2 points profit where achieve and different profits where achieved with different fixed stake liabilities. using a 10% risk liability stake a profit of 34 points would have been achieved, but could be too risky, will continue taking notes and see results at the end of the tournament. hopefully with other good results. good day in soccer also.

Soccer Tuesday 29th March

Irish Soccer

Derry City v Waterford United (1.5,4.5,8.2) Lay Waterford @ 8.2 result 1-1
Stake plan 1: won + 1 point
Stake plan 2 : -10 points

Sligo Rovers v Drogheda United (4.3,3.75,2) Lay Sligo Rovers@ 4.3 result 0-2
Stake plan 1 +1 point
Stake plan 2 10 points

Results,
Stake 1 + 2 points
Stake 2 0 points